Thanks for sharihg this excellent analysis. Another potential source of secondary supply are cicil stockpiles. Do you have any figures on the current stockpile/consumption ratio and the historic average?
Hi Joerg, I actually don't. Utilities in Europe are well-stocked because regulation forces them to maintain 2 to 3 years' worth of stock. There are expensive reports, 5000$ a piece, that do track these but I don't have access to that. From the analysts from RBC, TD, and Morgan Stanley, it is not a source that is big enough to worry about or to change our supply forecast that much. Unless or Until a utility would close down reactors and liquidate their stockpile, I do not see this as something that needs to be closely monitored. How do you see it?
The World Nuclear Report shows some figures for 2018/2019. According to this report the world's power reactors consume about 67.500t per year. That doesn't exactly match with the supply/demand table above but is probably a fair estimate. At the end of 2018 stockpiles were estimated to be 279.000t, this would put the ratio at 4,13 (i think you have to muliply by 2205 to get back from t to lb). You're rightly saying that it probably doesn't matter in the long run but on a 24 month horizon the utilities might have flexibility when it comes to contracting activity.
Thanks for sharihg this excellent analysis. Another potential source of secondary supply are cicil stockpiles. Do you have any figures on the current stockpile/consumption ratio and the historic average?
Hi Joerg, I actually don't. Utilities in Europe are well-stocked because regulation forces them to maintain 2 to 3 years' worth of stock. There are expensive reports, 5000$ a piece, that do track these but I don't have access to that. From the analysts from RBC, TD, and Morgan Stanley, it is not a source that is big enough to worry about or to change our supply forecast that much. Unless or Until a utility would close down reactors and liquidate their stockpile, I do not see this as something that needs to be closely monitored. How do you see it?
The World Nuclear Report shows some figures for 2018/2019. According to this report the world's power reactors consume about 67.500t per year. That doesn't exactly match with the supply/demand table above but is probably a fair estimate. At the end of 2018 stockpiles were estimated to be 279.000t, this would put the ratio at 4,13 (i think you have to muliply by 2205 to get back from t to lb). You're rightly saying that it probably doesn't matter in the long run but on a 24 month horizon the utilities might have flexibility when it comes to contracting activity.