You got "unlucky" on your post timing a second time, or maybe it's lucky :) DYL released an announcement ~6 hours after your article restating their position and their interest in VMY! It pretty much confirmed your "what's next?" section's accuracy. Looks like they are quite intent on Vimy, but also looks like JB is determined not to raise his offer too much (or at least wants to appear that way).
The fact it's a 100% scrip bid does alleviate a few of the factors that might necessitate offering a larger deal-sweetener, too - all the bullish arguments that apply to to the shares of VMY that shareholders are being asked to surrender, apply pretty much equally well to the shares of DYL they are being offered as compensation. As for what's a fair offer, it would take a more dedicated and knowledgeable numbers guy than me to work that out, but consensus among names I respect on twitter seemed to be "JB can offer more than a 10% premium here and still have it be solidly accretive to DYL holders".
Gut feeling is that VMY holders definitely would want (deserve?) a bit more of a compensatory sugar hit than 10%, because while for DYL holders their exposure is changing a little, it's in line with what their CEO told them to expect, it's what they always planned. For VMY holders, they are suddenly asked to go from a pure simple permitted open pit WA play to accepting large exposure to a diversified very early stage Namibia jurisdiction developer, with a rockstar premium on management. Or at the other end of the spectrum, people like me who are already irresponsibly exposed to DYL and aren't necessarily looking to add :)
Both those groups are perhaps 'forced' to sell and realise capital gains they didn't want to realise yet - in my case if I do so I will also be somewhat narrowly missing out on the 12 month CGT discount, so likely my gains will be taxed 45% instead of 22.5%. Yes, that's a personal circumstance, but it will not be a unique one and it will influence how retail holders perceive the offers, to the degree to which that affects anything (perhaps not much, I admit)
If I were JB i'd call sprott and the Friedlands and have them help me buy all of the above but ACAP. Make the OPEC+ of Uranium in concert with $SPUT. Let Munro market, JB develop & corner the market.
reposting my thoughts here:
You got "unlucky" on your post timing a second time, or maybe it's lucky :) DYL released an announcement ~6 hours after your article restating their position and their interest in VMY! It pretty much confirmed your "what's next?" section's accuracy. Looks like they are quite intent on Vimy, but also looks like JB is determined not to raise his offer too much (or at least wants to appear that way).
The fact it's a 100% scrip bid does alleviate a few of the factors that might necessitate offering a larger deal-sweetener, too - all the bullish arguments that apply to to the shares of VMY that shareholders are being asked to surrender, apply pretty much equally well to the shares of DYL they are being offered as compensation. As for what's a fair offer, it would take a more dedicated and knowledgeable numbers guy than me to work that out, but consensus among names I respect on twitter seemed to be "JB can offer more than a 10% premium here and still have it be solidly accretive to DYL holders".
Gut feeling is that VMY holders definitely would want (deserve?) a bit more of a compensatory sugar hit than 10%, because while for DYL holders their exposure is changing a little, it's in line with what their CEO told them to expect, it's what they always planned. For VMY holders, they are suddenly asked to go from a pure simple permitted open pit WA play to accepting large exposure to a diversified very early stage Namibia jurisdiction developer, with a rockstar premium on management. Or at the other end of the spectrum, people like me who are already irresponsibly exposed to DYL and aren't necessarily looking to add :)
Both those groups are perhaps 'forced' to sell and realise capital gains they didn't want to realise yet - in my case if I do so I will also be somewhat narrowly missing out on the 12 month CGT discount, so likely my gains will be taxed 45% instead of 22.5%. Yes, that's a personal circumstance, but it will not be a unique one and it will influence how retail holders perceive the offers, to the degree to which that affects anything (perhaps not much, I admit)
If I were JB i'd call sprott and the Friedlands and have them help me buy all of the above but ACAP. Make the OPEC+ of Uranium in concert with $SPUT. Let Munro market, JB develop & corner the market.